Have you stopped paying for ChatGPT access? Or maybe you’re thinking about it right now as you read this? It looks like you’re not alone, and the paid AI services bubble might be colliding with reality. According to leaks originally published by The Information and extensively analyzed by analyst Ed Zitron, OpenAI is bracing for a massive slump in its core business model. The company’s forecasts project that its base of users paying $20 a month for ChatGPT Plus will shrink from 44 million to just 9 million by the end of 2026.
To offset such a drastic customer exodus, the creators of ChatGPT intend to completely pivot their strategy. The plan involves a massive expansion of their cheapest, ad-supported subscription tier called “ChatGPT Go,” which costs between $5 and $8 a month depending on the region. OpenAI’s internal targets for 2026 aim to grow the user base for this specific plan from 3 million to 112 million. That would represent a staggering 3,600 percent increase in just twelve months.
However, this math raises serious doubts. As Zitron calculates, even if OpenAI managed to pull off the biggest user acquisition campaign in history and hit the projected 112 million Go subscribers, the resulting revenue would still fall $155 million short compared to the lost income from the Plus tier. Furthermore, servicing an additional 109 million accounts would come with an astronomical surge in operating costs and compute consumption – the dreaded burn rate.
The timing of these leaked forecasts hardly seems coincidental. Just days earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Sam Altman-led corporation had missed its targets for revenue and new subscriber acquisition. Piecing these two reports together paints a picture of a company forced to rapidly adjust its business model in the face of waning consumer enthusiasm and mounting financial pressure from investors.
It appears that keeping the mainstream user hooked on a $20 monthly subscription is becoming increasingly difficult in the long run. The competition is fierce, offering discounts and free trials, while local models are steadily improving and running on a wider array of devices. The AI industry, which until now has leaned heavily on exclusive, paid access to its top-tier models, will likely be forced to transition to a mass-market system built on cheaper microtransactions and ad monetization. Unless, of course, the bubble bursts and only two or three of the biggest players are left standing in the ring, offering the most value bundled into a single subscription.